Atlas: MLB Predictor

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Atlas: MLB Predictor

Atlas is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each MLB game. Atlas currently predicts MLB games straight-up. To predict, Atlas uses 12 variables from each team and an additional 6 situational variables to calculate the probabilities below. The team variables include the number of games a team has played, the win percentage at home and away of a team, and the number of runs scored by team. While situational variables include variables such as the day of the week a game is played.

To view Atlas’ predictions for a particular game and their outcomes, please use the date drop-down menu below to view game predictions by day throughout the season. Atlas’ performance by day and cumulative performance of the season will be tracked below.

Atlas also computes the projected MLB standings, and recalculates as the season progresses.

Finally, Atlas tracks cumulative MLB scores earned and allowed throughout a season and plots each teams’ performance.

UPDATE 4/13: Various cumulative variables were not calculating correctly, and many of the predictions prior to today changed. However, this only hurt Atlas’ prediction rating.


22 Comments

David

April 5, 2016 at 10:57 pm

I noticed the % of win probability is changing from past days. Why is this? For example on 4/3/2015 the % was something like 53 or 54 for Toronto. Now it says 51.5%. Any way to freeze the expected % for that day?

    TrevorBischoff

    April 5, 2016 at 11:45 pm

    David,

    Thanks for asking – on opening day one of the variables was not pulling correctly into the Atlas’ prediction algorithm. After fixing the issue, some of the percentages changed slightly, however all of the percentages of past games should now remain constant moving forward. Probability percentages of future games will continue to change as the date approaches until the day of.

    -Trevor L. Bischoff

      David

      April 6, 2016 at 12:40 am

      Thanks – I will share my findings at the End of Season for your great work.

David

April 15, 2016 at 12:47 pm

Twins & Padres projected to win a lot of games? Something with that wrong?

    TrevorBischoff

    April 17, 2016 at 9:19 pm

    I noticed this as well, I have a to do a deep dive into the data to make sure these are calculating properly. However, Atlas does take into account the stats of their competitors, it’s possible their schedules may be a lot easier. Nonetheless, I’ll have a look into the data this week.

    Trevor L. Bischoff

David

April 17, 2016 at 4:11 pm

Recently teams have 100% win prob. Last 2 days.

    TrevorBischoff

    April 17, 2016 at 9:20 pm

    This is something I was experiencing at the beginning of the year that I remedied by recalibrating the model, which I’m attempting to limit. I will have to take a look at the stats of the teams that are bringing out this projection, as it’s definitely unrealistic. I appreciate the observation and the input!

    Trevor L. Bischoff

Carlos

April 20, 2016 at 2:49 pm

Hi David!

on 4/17/2016 you have that Padres won against Dbacks 7-3 and its the other way around…(that’s what mlb.com say i didnt watch the game), I dunno if it affect on the prediction of the next games but i just wanted to let you know

Amazing work btw

    TrevorBischoff

    April 20, 2016 at 5:23 pm

    Carlos,

    Good catch! Thanks so much for pointing that out. The correct data should be reflected now.

    Trevor L. Bischoff

David

April 26, 2016 at 12:31 pm

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/?ex_cid=story-twitter

Don’t know if you caught this yet.

Carlos

May 6, 2016 at 11:53 am

Hi Trevor

In the last game of yesterday (05/05/2016) Colorado is the one who scored 17 runs not Giants, there is the win to be over 50%

    TrevorBischoff

    May 6, 2016 at 12:58 pm

    Hi Carlos,

    This has now been corrected. Thanks for checking!

    -Trevor L. Bischoff

      Carlos

      May 16, 2016 at 1:48 pm

      Another correction, The last game of yesterday (15/05/16) you have the Dodgers winning when it was the Cardinals.

      Greetings

        TrevorBischoff

        May 17, 2016 at 7:06 am

        Hi Carlos, this has now been corrected. Thanks again for keeping an eye out!

        The double header on May 14th between the National and Marlins was also added.

David

June 11, 2016 at 2:14 pm

Site is spinning with Tableau. No clue why I can see anything. Tried 2 pc’s and mobile device.

    TrevorBischoff

    June 11, 2016 at 11:21 pm

    Hi David,

    Looks like it is loading for me. Let me know if it is still causing issues for you and I can try to look into it further.

    -Trevor L. Bischoff

Carlos

July 20, 2016 at 11:54 am

In yesterday Reds/Braves game the score was 4-5 winning braves, you have them with the same score as RedSox/Giants

    TrevorBischoff

    July 23, 2016 at 12:34 pm

    Carlos,

    Thanks for keeping an eye on all of the scores. I’ve made that change – so a few of the probabilities may have changed as well for those teams as Atlas takes those into account. It shouldn’t be material though.

    -Trevor L. Bischoff

Carlos

August 29, 2016 at 2:03 pm

in 8/26 the score in the Cleveland/Texas game is switched, the Indians won that game.

CLE 12
TEX 1

S

September 3, 2017 at 7:45 pm

When will the 2017 version be ready?

Jeff

September 20, 2018 at 3:16 pm

Did I miss the 2018 model ?

    TrevorBischoff

    September 24, 2018 at 10:53 am

    Hi Jeff,

    Unfortunately not. I was not able to find broad and reliable enough data for the 2018 MLB season to refresh Atlas. However, I’m on the lookout this year to try for the 2019 season!

    Thanks,
    Trevor B.

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