NFL 2015 Week 13 Predictions

NFL 2015 Week 13 Predictions

Amos loses further ground to Bing by 1 game and Elo takes the top performance for the week.

For those just joining, Amos is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each NFL game. Amos currently predicts games straight-up. Additionally, Amos then predicts the remainder of the season to compute the ending record of each team.

Amos also has peers within the NFL prediction field. While there are a number of sources for game predictions, I have identified Microsoft’s Bing Prediction (Cortana), ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and Nate Silver’s Elo as benchmarks for comparison to Amos.

Week 13 Standings

Amos went 9-7, having misses of Philadelphia, Green Bay, Tennessee, NY Giants, Atlanta, Jacksonville and New England.

ESPN’s FPI went 10-6, having misses of Philadelphia, Green Bay, Dallas, NY Giants, Atlanta and Miami.

Microsoft’s Bing went 10-6, having misses of Green Bay, NY Giants, Atlanta, Jacksonville, New England and Cleveland.

Nate Silver’s Elo went 11-5, having misses of Green Bay, NY Giants, Atlanta, Jacksonville and New England.

Moving on into Week 13 picks, a handful of teams working to clinch playoff spots provide some splits between the models.

Week 13 Picks

Amos has a variety of notable picks, currently favoring NY Jets over NY Giants (51%), Atlanta over Tampa Bay (61%), Baltimore over Miami (50%) and Dallas over Washington (63%).

ESPN’s FPI is currently favoring St. Louis over Arizona (51%), New Orleans over Carolina (56%), Seattle over Minnesota (60%), Miami over Baltimore (55%), Indianapolis over Pittsburgh (53%) and Dallas over Washington (64%).

Microsoft’s Bing is currently favoring Tampa Bay over Atlanta (52%), Miami over Baltimore (61%), Jacksonville over Tennessee (53%) and Washington over Dallas (53%).

Nate Silver’s Elo is mellow this week, currently favoring Tampa Bay over Atlanta (53%), Baltimore over Miami (54%) and Washington over Dallas (53%).

Below compares the confidence of each model.

Week 13 Overall Graph

Finally, from the performances of each of the teams, Amos has simulated the rest of the season. The biggest gainers this week were Denver and San Diego, not only picking up their respective win this week, but also adding an additional game throughout the rest of the season. Denver overcame New England this week, something Amos predicted up until Week 10.  However, Amos still has New England winning the remainder of their season games.

The biggest loser this week is Miami, who lost two games on their season record.

Week 13 Remainder

Week 1: 11-5

Week 2: 9-7

Week 3: 11-5

Week 4: 9-6

Week 5: 10-4

Week 6: 10-4

Week 7: 9-5

Week 8: 10-4

Week 9: 7-6

HALFTIME REPORT & Week 10: 5-9

Week 11: 10-4

Week 12: 9-7

Week 14: 9-7

Week 15: 14-2

Week 16: 7-9

Week 17: 9-7

Wildcard: 3-1

Divisional: 2-2

Conference: 0-2

Super Bowl: Predictions

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