NFL 2015 Week 14 Predictions
Amos comes out on top for Week 13, which Amos also tied for first in Week 11 and took the lead again in Week 10, landing itself just one behind Microsoft Bing and two ahead of ESPN’s FPI.
For those just joining, Amos is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each NFL game. Amos currently predicts games straight-up. Additionally, Amos then predicts the remainder of the season to compute the ending record of each team.
Amos also has peers within the NFL prediction field. While there are a number of sources for game predictions, I have identified Microsoft’s Bing Prediction (Cortana), ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and Nate Silver’s Elo as benchmarks for comparison to Amos.
Amos went 11-5, having misses of Atlanta, Minnesota, Baltimore, Chicago, and New England.
ESPN’s FPI went 9-7, having misses of NY Giants, St. Louis, Atlanta, New Orleans, Chicago, New England and Indianapolis.
Microsoft’s Bing went 10-6, having misses of NY Giants, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Chicago, New England and Washington.
Nate Silver’s Elo went 10-6, having misses of NY Giants, Minnesota, Baltimore, Chicago, New England and Washington.
Moving on into Week 14 picks, it looks like the San Francisco vs Cleveland game is the game to look for.
Amos has a mellow week, with its only notable pick being San Francisco over Cleveland (57%).
ESPN’s FPI is currently favoring Cleveland over San Francisco (54%), New Orleans over Tampa Bay (59%) and Houston over New England (55%).
Microsoft’s Bing is currently favoring Buffalo over Philadelphia (55%), Cleveland over San Francisco (53%), Detroit over St. Louis (52%) and NY Giants over Miami (52%).
Nate Silver’s Elo is also having a mellow week, with its only notable pick being favoring San Francisco over Cleveland (59%).
Below compares the confidence of each model.
Finally, from the performances of each of the teams, Amos has simulated the rest of the season. The biggest gainers this week were Miami and San Francisco, adding two additional wins to their season records. The biggest loser this week is Indianapolis after their poor performance against Pittsburgh, resulting in two additional loses for their season record.
Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 10-4
Week 6: 10-4
Week 7: 9-5
Week 8: 10-4
Week 9: 7-6
HALFTIME REPORT & Week 10: 5-9
Week 11: 10-4
Week 12: 9-7
Week 13: 11-5
Week 15: 14-2
Week 16: 7-9
Week 17: 9-7
Super Bowl: Predictions
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