NFL 2015 Week 17 Predictions

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NFL 2015 Week 17 Predictions

As we enter into the last week of predictions for the regular season, I’d like to thank all of the readers keeping up with the models and the great season. Amos will continue into the post season through the Super Bowl so be sure to check back.

For those just joining, Amos is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each NFL game. Amos currently predicts games straight-up. Additionally, Amos then predicts the remainder of the season to compute the ending record of each team.

Amos also has peers within the NFL prediction field. While there are a number of sources for game predictions, I have identified Microsoft’s Bing Prediction (Cortana), ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and Nate Silver’s Elo as benchmarks for comparison to Amos.

Week 17 Standings

Amos went 7-9, having misses of San Diego, Philadelphia, New England, Miami, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Seattle, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.

ESPN’s FPI went 10-6, San Diego, Philadelphia, New England, Tampa Bay, Seattle and Green Bay.

Microsoft’s Bing went 10-6, Philadelphia, New England, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Seattle and Pittsburgh.

Nate Silver’s Elo went 10-6, Philadelphia, New England, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Seattle and Pittsburgh.

Moving on into Week 17 picks… Amos and Bing look to break the tie by just two games.

Week 17 Picks

While Amos currently doesn’t have any surprising predictions this week, it differentiates from Bing by favoring Buffalo over the NY Jets (64%) and Atlanta over New Orleans (81%).

ESPN’s FPI is currently favoring Philadelphia over the NY Giants (52%), Seattle over Arizona (55%) and San Francisco over St. Louis (53%).

Microsoft’s Bing is currently favoring the NY Jets over Buffalo (55%) and New Orleans over Atlanta (53%).

Nate Silver’s Elo has one notable predictions for the week, which is Chicago over Detroit (51%).

Week 17 Overall Graph

Finally, from the performances of each of the teams, Amos has simulated the rest of the season. The below simulation is based on the above Week 17 predictions, and will make the final deviations from it if Amos’ predictions are not true.

Week 17 Remainder

Week 1: 11-5

Week 2: 9-7

Week 3: 11-5

Week 4: 9-6

Week 5: 10-4

Week 6: 10-4

Week 7: 9-5

Week 8: 10-4

Week 9: 7-6

HALFTIME REPORT & Week 10: 5-9

Week 11: 10-4

Week 12: 9-7

Week 13: 11-5

Week 14: 9-7

Week 15: 14-2

Week 16: 7-9

Wildcard: 3-1

Divisional: 2-2

Conference: 0-2

Super Bowl: Predictions

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