NFL 2015 Week 2 Predictions
Week 1 is in the books and now Amos has some new 2015 data.
For those just joining, Amos is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each NFL game. Amos currently predicts games straight-up. Additionally, Amos then predicts the remainder of the season to compute the ending record of each team.
Amos also has peers within the NFL prediction field. While there are a number of sources for game predictions, I have identified Microsoft’s Bing Prediction and ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) as benchmarks for comparison to Amos. I will also be including Nate Silver’s Elo this week.
Amos went 11-5, performing well for the first week. Amos hit all of its picks over 70% besides Philadelphia’s loss. Bing went 13-3 outperforming the rest of the models by predicting wins at Atlanta and St. Louis. Elo went 12-4, falling into 2nd place. and ESPN’s FPI went 10-6, falling into 4th and par with home wins.
Moving on into week two picks, there is a lot of consensus among the models. Check out all of the predictions below.
There appear to only be four key games this week for the models.
First, Amos is heavily favoring Washington over St. Louis (60.1%) while all the other models are favoring St. Louis.
Second, Bing is favoring Chicago over Arizona (51.5%) while the rest of the models favor Arizona.
Third, the Denver vs Kansas City match up is split by the models, Amos and ESPN’s FPI favoring Denver while Bing and Elo favor Kansas City.
Fourth, the Buffalo vs New England match up is also split by the models, Amos and Bing favoring Buffalo while ESPN’s FPI and Elo are favoring New England.
Finally, from the performances of each of the teams, Amos has simulated the rest of the season. See the results below and each team’s change from the last week.
Week 1: 11-5
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 10-4
Week 6: 10-4
Week 7: 9-5
Week 8: 10-4
Week 9: 7-6
Week 11: 10-4
Week 12: 9-7
Week 13: 11-5
Week 14: 9-7
Week 15: 14-2
Week 16: 7-9
Week 17: 9-7
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