NFL 2015 Week 3 Predictions

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NFL 2015 Week 3 Predictions

Week 2 is in the books and Amos had a great week. Sort of.

For those just joining, Amos is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each NFL game. Amos currently predicts games straight-up. Additionally, Amos then predicts the remainder of the season to compute the ending record of each team.

Amos also has peers within the NFL prediction field. While there are a number of sources for game predictions, I have identified Microsoft’s Bing PredictionESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and Nate Silver’s Elo as benchmarks for comparison to Amos.

Week 3 Standings

Bing has now fallen behind from Week 1 and Amos and Elo are tied for first, but all performances are low due to a quite the occasion this past week.

Wins by Oakland, Jacksonville and Tampa Bay hurt all models. Surprisingly, all three models predicted Cleveland’s win over Tennessee, but only Amos was able to predict Washington’s win over St. Louis, coupled with a Denver over Kansas City pick, enabling Amos to pass Bing and tie with Elo.

Amos went 9-7 (56%) this week, moving up in the standings with an incredible differential prediction of Washington over St. Louis. Slightly less impressive, Amos also picked Denver over Kansas City. A big week for Amos to get back up with its peers while still a low accuracy week.

FPI went 9-7 (56%) as well, also predicting Denver over Kansas City and New England over Buffalo.

Bing had a terrible week, going 6-10 (38%). Bing’s performance poor performance was driven by misses all over the board with the losses of Chicago, Kansas City, Buffalo, and Indianapolis.

Elo also had relatively rough week, only getting to 8-8 (50%). The performance was driven by its misses of Kansas City and Indianapolis games.

Moving on into Week 3 picks, it looks to be a fairly tame week in the prediction arena. There is a large amount of consensus with only 4 games with differences.

Week 3 Picks

Deviations provide an opportunity for models to pull away from the others, with the risk of falling behind. This week we will see 4. Amos is favoring Detroit over Denver. A bold move as all other models are in agreement over Denver. Similarly, Elo is favoring NY Jets over Philadelphia while all other models a favoring Philadelphia. Bing is also squaring off against the models favoring St. Louis over Pittsburgh and Atlanta over Dallas. Finally, all four models are split between Philadelphia @ NY Jets.

Below outlines the picks by model, but also illustrates confidence differences between models.

Week 3 Overall Graph

Finally, from the performances of each of the teams, Amos has simulated the rest of the season. See the results below and each team’s change from the last week.

Week 3 Remainder

Week 1: 11-5

Week 2: 9-7

Week 4: 9-6

Week 5: 10-4

Week 6: 10-4

Week 7: 9-5

Week 8: 10-4

Week 9: 7-6

HALFTIME REPORT & Week 10: 5-9

Week 11: 10-4

Week 12: 9-7

Week 13: 11-5

Week 14: 9-7

Week 15: 14-2

Week 16: 7-9

Week 17: 9-7

Wildcard: 3-1

Divisional: 2-2

Conference: Predictions


10 Comments

James

September 23, 2015 at 7:37 pm

Another nice benchmark you might include in the next edition is the success rate of Vegas favorites via the closing spread.

    Chris

    September 25, 2015 at 5:05 am

    Why are Amos, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and Nate Silver’s Elo running season and weekly pick stats not showing or displayed in the overall standings with all of the others? Unless I missed it? Thanks.

      TrevorBischoff

      September 25, 2015 at 8:00 am

      Chris, season standings are displayed in the bar chart within the post. Below that states the weekly performance with some color around the performance. Here were their latest performances:
      Amos 9-7
      FPI 9-7
      Bing 6-10
      Elo 8-8.

      Hope that helps.

chris brennan

September 23, 2015 at 8:09 pm

your simulator has sprung a leak
carolina top seed in nfc
patriots playing wild card weekend
please reboot and see if your algorithm has matured to minimal intelligence

chris brennan

September 23, 2015 at 8:16 pm

had to comment again
if i read it right lase week you had:
miami winning 12 games
bufallo winning 11
patriots winning 10
denver winning 15
colts winning 12

so i know it is a computer program but what idiot is inputting the data that is making the program look like a fool.

Rob

September 28, 2015 at 8:29 pm

I kind of have an issue with the last table for Total Wins, which I do like, however Dallas with 14 wins and NE with 10 is laughable, especially since it updates each week.

Ray

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