NFL 2015 Week 5 Predictions

NFL 2015 Week 5 Predictions

Amos had an average week, beating out Microsoft’s Bing (Cortana), but falling one behind Nate Silver’s Elo and ESPN’s FPI.

For those just joining, Amos is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each NFL game. Amos currently predicts games straight-up. Additionally, Amos then predicts the remainder of the season to compute the ending record of each team.

Amos also has peers within the NFL prediction field. While there are a number of sources for game predictions, I have identified Microsoft’s Bing Prediction (Cortana), ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and Nate Silver’s Elo as benchmarks for comparison to Amos.

Week 5 Standings

Amos went 9-6 (60%). Amos went out on a limb this week and was able to predict wins at Washington and Chicago this week. However, Amos missed its pick of Houston over Atlanta with additional misses on Pittsburgh, Miami, Buffalo, Arizona and Dallas.

ESPN’s FPI went 10-5 (67%). Performing one game over Amos, FPI was able to pick up New Orleans’ advantage of playing at home and Atlanta’s heat wave, however not picking Washington win.

Microsoft’s Bing went 8-7 (53%). Bing nearly missed half of its picks, most notably Philadelphia and Oakland, but picked up Atlanta which Amos did not.

Nate Silver’s Elo went 10-5 (67%). Nate Silver was able to also pull of one game over Amos, which was driven by picks of NY Jets and Atlanta, but not picking Washington’s win.

Moving on to Week 5 picks, the models look to differentiate themselves in some key areas. A handful of deviations are present.

Week 5 Picks

Amos has a very bold prediction for Week 5, picking Dallas over New England (52%) as New England rolls off its bye week. Slightly less bold, Amos is also favoring Jacksonville as they travel to take on Tampa Bay (50.1%) while the rest of the models are favoring Tampa Bay. Additionally, the models are evenly split on the San Diego vs Pittsburgh game; Amos is favoring Pittsburgh (63%).

ESPN’s FPI continues to have faith in Seattle as they travel to take on Cincinnati (55%). Additionally, FPI is favoring Detroit over Arizona (59%) and San Diego over Pittsburgh (50.1%). Great chances for FPI to pull away further if the model is correct.

Microsoft’s Bing only has one deviation from the rest of the models besides favoring San Diego (52%) in the game against Pittsburgh. Bing is currently favoring Tennessee at home over Buffalo (51%).

Elo remains relatively mellow entering into Week 5, but joins the ambiguity of the San Diego vs Pittsburgh game by favoring Pittsburgh (50.1%).

Week 5 Overall Graph

Finally, from the performances of each of the teams, Amos has simulated the rest of the season. The big gainer this week is Atlanta, as Amos has calculated an additional 3 games throughout the season as a results of their performance against Houston this past week. The biggest loser is Tampa Bay as they struggled with turnovers against Carolina.

See the results below and each team’s change from the last week.

Week 5 Remainder

Week 1: 11-5

Week 2: 9-7

Week 3: 11-5

Week 4: 9-6

Week 6: 10-4

Week 7: 9-5

Week 8: 10-4

Week 9: 7-6

HALFTIME REPORT & Week 10: 5-9

Week 11: 10-4

Week 12: 9-7

Week 13: 11-5

Week 14: 9-7

Week 15: 14-2

Week 16: 7-9

Week 17: 9-7

Wildcard: 3-1

Divisional: 2-2

Conference: Predictions


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8 Comments

Jim Kayler

October 7, 2015 at 2:15 pm

Nice blog, just found it today. I am involved in a couple of pools and use picks and stats from multiple locations every week to do my own personal picks and I think that your blog will come in handy for that. I notice that you have posted the picks analysis as an image. I was just wondering if there is any possibility of posting the data as either text or a table so that I can easily copy it into the spreadsheets that I use for my picks. I could key in the information however it would save me a ton of time if I could just grab the data I need. I haven’t found a good OCR solution to reliable produce text from images when they contain a lot of numbers.

In any case, nice blog!

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