NFL 2015 Week 6 Predictions
Amos comes off a great week, but so do the rest of the models.
For those just joining, Amos is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each NFL game. Amos currently predicts games straight-up. Additionally, Amos then predicts the remainder of the season to compute the ending record of each team.
Amos also has peers within the NFL prediction field. While there are a number of sources for game predictions, I have identified Microsoft’s Bing Prediction (Cortana), ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and Nate Silver’s Elo as benchmarks for comparison to Amos.
Amos went 10-4, having misses of Kansas City, Jacksonville, Baltimore, and Dallas. Amos went out on a limb with the Dallas and Jacksonville picks against the other models. Amos was able to pull off an exceptional pick of Pittsburgh over San Diego.
ESPN’s FPI went 9-5, having misses of Kansas City, Baltimore, Seattle, Detroit, and San Diego.
Microsoft’s Bing went 10-4, having misses of Kansas City, Baltimore, Tennessee and San Diego. A better week for Bing’s terrible recent performance, but still coming up short in the overall standings.
Nate Silver’s Elo went 12-2, an absolutely stellar week, having losses of Kansas City and Baltimore. Elo was also able to predict Pittsburgh over San Diego.
Moving into week 6 picks, the models have decided to throw some daring predictions.
Amos hasn’t pulled out any surprising picks this week besides Pittsburgh over Arizona (51.6%). While a bold prediction, all the other models also have Pittsburgh winning.
ESPN’s FPI has decided to make a statement, predicting wins of New Orleans over Atlanta (61%), Indianapolis over New England (58%), and Washington over NY Jets (67%).
Microsoft’s Bing is
joining FPI in predicting New Orleans over Atlanta (53%) and Indianapolis over New England (58%). making two bold predictions by favoring Tennessee over Miami (58%) and Cincinnati over Buffalo (52%).
Nate Silver’s Elo also makes two bold predictions. Elo is currently favoring Cincinnati over Seattle (53%) and, confidently, San Francisco over Baltimore
Finally, from the performances of each of the teams, Amos has simulated the rest of the season. The big gainer this week, again, is Atlanta, as Amos has calculated an additional four games throughout the season as they pulled off a win over Washington. The biggest losers this week are Houston and Dallas, Amos penalizing both teams three games.
See the results below and each team’s change from the last week.
Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 10-4
Week 7: 9-5
Week 8: 10-4
Week 9: 7-6
Week 11: 10-4
Week 12: 9-7
Week 13: 11-5
Week 14: 9-7
Week 15: 14-2
Week 16: 7-9
Week 17: 9-7
Update: A reader pointed out that Nate Silver’s Elo confidence plot was inverted for the NY Jets vs New Orleans game. This has been corrected and is now accurate in all charts and graphs.
Update: Bing changed New Orleans to Atlanta, Indianapolis to New England, Buffalo to Cincinnati, and issued a pick of Tennessee over Miami. This is now accurate in all charts and graphs.
Update: A reader pointed out Elo’s probability of San Francisco vs Baltimore changed from 66% to 52%. This is now accurate in all charts and graphs.
Update: Bing changed its pick to Arizona (55%) versus Pittsburgh and increased its confidence in Philadelphia to 56%. This is now accurate in all charts and graphs.
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