NFL 2015 Week 7 Predictions
Amos overtakes FPI for second place and Elo extends its lead 1 more game.
For those just joining, Amos is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each NFL game. Amos currently predicts games straight-up. Additionally, Amos then predicts the remainder of the season to compute the ending record of each team.
Amos also has peers within the NFL prediction field. While there are a number of sources for game predictions, I have identified Microsoft’s Bing Prediction (Cortana), ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and Nate Silver’s Elo as benchmarks for comparison to Amos.
Amos went 10-4, having misses of Atlanta, Buffalo, Baltimore and Seattle. A great week for Amos.
ESPN’s FPI went 9-5, finding a great pick of New Orleans over Atlanta, but having misses of Washington, Buffalo, Seattle, Baltimore and Indianapolis.
Microsoft’s Bing went 9-5, having misses of Atlanta, Seattle and Baltimore, but also having two more notable misses of Arizona and Tennessee, which were deviations from the other models.
Nate Silver’s Elo, having another stellar week, went 12-2. Elo only missed picks of Atlanta and Seattle, pulling off two great picks of Cincinnati and San Francisco against the other models.
Moving into Week 7 picks, ESPN’s FPI has the bold predictions for the week while the other three models are at a consensus other than Dallas at NY Giants.
Amos, Microsoft’s Bing and Nate Silver’s Elo all have the same picks, except Elo currently does not have a pick for the Minnesota at Detroit game and is evenly split exactly 50-50.
The only deviation occurring between the three models is the Dallas at NY Giants game where Amos and ESPN’s FPI are favoring Dallas meanwhile Microsoft’s Bing and Nate Silver’s Elo are favoring NY Giants. This poses an interesting interpretation as Bing has not been performing well, however Elo has been performing well. This could allow Bing to regain some ground or allow Amos and FPI to get a step closer to Elo.
ESPN FPI has three deviations for Week 7. FPI is favoring Tennessee over Atlanta (60%), losing some faith in Atlanta after last week’s loss at New Orleans. Additionally, FPI is favoring Detroit over Minnesota (59%) and Kansas City over Pittsburgh (56%).
Finally, from the performances of each of the teams, Amos has simulated the rest of the season. The big gainer this week is Dallas, as Amos has calculated an additional three wins throughout the season as Amos devalues select opponents of theirs, specifically over NY Giants this week which Amos was favoring NY Giants until last night’s game. The biggest losers this week are NY Giants, Chicago and Detroit as Amos penalized all three teams two games.
See the results below and each team’s change from the last week.
Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 10-4
Week 6: 10-4
Week 8: 10-4
Week 9: 7-6
Week 11: 10-4
Week 12: 9-7
Week 13: 11-5
Week 14: 9-7
Week 15: 14-2
Week 16: 7-9
Week 17: 9-7
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