NFL 2015 Week 8 Predictions
Amos and Nate Silver’s Elo tie for the week, and Bing regains some lost ground.
For those just joining, Amos is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each NFL game. Amos currently predicts games straight-up. Additionally, Amos then predicts the remainder of the season to compute the ending record of each team.
Amos also has peers within the NFL prediction field. While there are a number of sources for game predictions, I have identified Microsoft’s Bing Prediction (Cortana), ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and Nate Silver’s Elo as benchmarks for comparison to Amos.
Amos went 9-5, having misses of Buffalo, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Diego and Dallas.
ESPN’s FPI went 8-6, having misses of Buffalo, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Detroit, San Diego and Dallas.
Microsoft’s Bing went 10-4, which is only its second time finishing a week above the other models, having misses of Buffalo, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and San Diego.
Nate Silver’s Elo went 9-5, having misses of Buffalo, Indianapolis, New Orleans and San Diego. Unfortunately, Elo did not have a pick for the Minnesota and Detroit game which will be counted against it.
Moving onto Week 8 picks, ESPN’s FPI is calling for some upsets. However, the main toss up is Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh this week.
Amos’ picks this week are no surprises except Amos continues to have faith and is favoring Dallas by less than 1% (actually 50.008%).
ESPN FPI is predicting some upsets this week with favoring Detroit over Kansas City (53%), Chicago over Minnesota (55%), and Indianapolis over Carolina (56%). FPI is also on the fence over Dallas vs Seattle, but is leaning slightly to Seattle.
Microsoft’s Bing has two deviations from the other models which are Cincinnati over Pittsburgh (52%) and Oakland over NY Jets (53%).
Nate Silver’s Elo has the same predictions as Amos and Bing, however Elo, much like Amos, has predicted right at 50% for the Cincinnati at Pittsburgh game. Elo has taken the Pittsburgh pick.
Finally, from the performances of each of the teams, Amos has simulated the rest of the season. The big gainer this week is Kansas City, who was able to pick up 2 more wins for the season. The biggest losers this week are Dallas and San Diego, which should not be surprising after the loses this week.
See the results below and each team’s change from the last week.
Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 10-4
Week 6: 10-4
Week 7: 9-5
Week 9: 7-6
Week 11: 10-4
Week 12: 9-7
Week 13: 11-5
Week 14: 9-7
Week 15: 14-2
Week 16: 7-9
Week 17: 9-7
Update: A reader pointed out that Nate Silver’s Elo does indeed have a pick for the Cincinnati at Pittsburgh game. This has been added and updated in all charts and graphs.
Update: Bing changed its pick from NY Jets to Oakland. This has been added and updated in all charts and graphs.