NFL 2015 Week 9 Predictions
Holy Bing! Amos drops to third place after explosive performance by Bing.
For those just joining, Amos is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each NFL game. Amos currently predicts games straight-up. Additionally, Amos then predicts the remainder of the season to compute the ending record of each team.
Amos also has peers within the NFL prediction field. While there are a number of sources for game predictions, I have identified Microsoft’s Bing Prediction (Cortana), ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and Nate Silver’s Elo as benchmarks for comparison to Amos.
Amos went 10-4, having misses of Atlanta, Pittsburgh, NY Jets and Dallas.
ESPN’s FPI went 8-6, having misses of Detroit, Atlanta, Chicago, Pittsburgh, NY Jets and Indianapolis.
Microsoft’s Bing went 13-1, only having a miss of Atlanta.
Nate Silver’s Elo went 11-3, having misses of Atlanta, Pittsburgh and NY Jets.
Moving onto Week 9 picks, only four games have models deviating from the rest. The big game this week is Green Bay at Carolina.
Amos doesn’t have any surprising picks other than the big toss-up for the week. Green Bay at Carolina, where Amos is favoring Green Bay (58%).
ESPN’s FPI has come out with some interesting picks currently favoring San Francisco over Atlanta (54%) and Indianapolis over Denver (58%). Additionally, FPI is siding with Amos and favoring Green Bay over Carolina (58%).
Microsoft’s Bing, coming off a nearly perfect week, is currently favoring Carolina over Green Bay (57%). Additionally, Bing is deviating from the rest of the models by taking Philadelphia over Dallas (58%).
Nate Silver’s Elo is favoring the same teams as Amos, save one: Elo is currently favoring Carolina over Green Bay (55%).
Finally, from the performances of each of the teams, Amos has simulated the rest of the season. The big gainer this week is Chicago, who was able to pick up 2 more wins for the seasons after their win over Atlanta. The biggest losers this week are Detroit and San Francisco, who picked up two more loses throughout the remaining season.
See the results below and each team’s change from the last week. Next week.
Next week I will be writing a halftime report, publishing a variety of additional stats and metrics I have been keeping track of for Amos.
Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 10-4
Week 6: 10-4
Week 7: 9-5
Week 8: 10-4
Week 11: 10-4
Week 12: 9-7
Week 13: 11-5
Week 14: 9-7
Week 15: 14-2
Week 16: 7-9
Week 17: 9-7