NFL 2015 Wildcard Predictions
The regular season is over. The model standings are in. and Amos and Microsoft’s Bing tied for second. Elo taking a firm lead of seven games over Amos and Bing. FPI came in last, with three games behind Amos and Bing.
For those just joining, Amos is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each NFL game. Amos currently predicts games straight-up. Additionally, Amos then predicts the remainder of the season to compute the ending record of each team.
Amos also has peers within the NFL prediction field. While there are a number of sources for game predictions, I have identified Microsoft’s Bing Prediction (Cortana), ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and Nate Silver’s Elo as benchmarks for comparison to Amos.
Amos went 9-7, having misses of New England, Atlanta, Dallas, NY Giants, Green Bay, Arizona and St. Louis.
FPI went 12-4, having misses of New England, Dallas, Philadelphia and Green Bay.
Bing went 9-7, having misses of the NY Jets, New England, Dallas, NY Giants, Green Bay, Arizona and St. Louis.
Elo went 8-8, having misses of New England, Atlanta, Dallas, NY Giants, Chicago, Green Bay, Arizona and St. Louis.
Moving on into the wildcard weekend predictions, a consensus is reached with most of the games throughout the models. As we progress throughout the playoffs, the predictions will continue to be filled out.
All of the predictions are the same, besides Bing, who is predicting Washington over Green Bay (57%).
Amos has also predicted the rest of the playoffs up to the Super Bowl 50.
Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 10-4
Week 6: 10-4
Week 7: 9-5
Week 8: 10-4
Week 9: 7-6
Week 11: 10-4
Week 12: 9-7
Week 13: 11-5
Week 14: 9-7
Week 15: 14-2
Week 16: 7-9
Week 17: 9-7
Super Bowl: Predictions