There you have it folks, while a rather underwhelming week for all models, Amos claims its first top performing week.
For those just joining, Amos is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each NFL game. Amos currently predicts games straight-up. Additionally, Amos then predicts the remainder of the season to compute the ending record of each team.
Amos also has peers within the NFL prediction field. While there are a number of sources for game predictions, I have identified Microsoft’s Bing Prediction (Cortana), ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and Nate Silver’s Elo as benchmarks for comparison to Amos.
A nasty week for the models. With misses everywhere, none of them were able to make it over 50% this week.
Amos went 5-9, having misses of NY Jets, Green Bay, Dallas, St. Louis, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Denver, Seattle and Cincinnati. However, a notable pick that allowed Amos the edge this week was Washington over New Orleans.
ESPN’s FPI went 4-10, having misses of NY Jets, Green Bay, Dallas, St. Louis, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Denver, Seattle and Cincinnati.
Microsoft’s Bing went 4-10, having misses of NY Jets, Green Bay, St. Louis, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Denver, Seattle and Cincinnati. Microsoft Bing was able to pick up on Tampa Bay’s win and successfully pulled a pick, however had a miss of Oakland.
Nate Silver’s Elo went 4-10, having misses of NY Jets, Green Bay, Dallas, St. Louis, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Denver, Seattle and Cincinnati.
Moving on to Week 11 picks, there is a lot of variability, but the models are specifically split for the Jacksonville vs Tennessee game.
Amos has two spotlight picks, currently favoring Tennessee over Jacksonville (50.4%) and and Dallas over Miami (55%).
ESPN’s FPI is deviating a lot from the rest of the models, currently favoring Tennessee over Jacksonville (57%), Indianapolis over Atlanta (59%), Green Bay over Minnesota (61%) and San Diego over Kansas City (54%). FPI is currently the only model to believing in Aaron Rodgers to get back on track.
Microsoft’s Bing is currently favoring Jacksonville over Tennessee (61%) and NY Jets over Houston (57%).
Nate Silver’s Elo only has one that is specifically noteworthy, which is Jacksonville over Tennessee (62%).
Finally, from the performances of each of the teams, Amos has simulated the rest of the season. The biggest gainer this week was Tampa Bay, not only picking up its win this week, but also adding an additional 2 games throughout the rest of the season. The biggest losers this week are Baltimore, Dallas, New Orleans, Seattle and St. Louis all of which lost two games on their record.
Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 10-4
Week 6: 10-4
Week 7: 9-5
Week 8: 10-4
Week 9: 7-6
Week 12: 9-7
Week 13: 11-5
Week 14: 9-7
Week 15: 14-2
Week 16: 7-9
Week 17: 9-7