NFL 2015 Week 11 Predictions

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NFL 2015 Week 11 Predictions

There you have it folks, while a rather underwhelming week for all models, Amos claims its first top performing week.

For those just joining, Amos is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each NFL game. Amos currently predicts games straight-up. Additionally, Amos then predicts the remainder of the season to compute the ending record of each team.

Amos also has peers within the NFL prediction field. While there are a number of sources for game predictions, I have identified Microsoft’s Bing Prediction (Cortana), ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and Nate Silver’s Elo as benchmarks for comparison to Amos.

Week 11 Standings

A nasty week for the models. With misses everywhere, none of them were able to make it over 50% this week.

Amos went 5-9, having misses of NY Jets, Green Bay, Dallas, St. Louis, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Denver, Seattle and Cincinnati. However, a notable pick that allowed Amos the edge this week was Washington over New Orleans.

ESPN’s FPI went 4-10, having misses of NY Jets, Green Bay, Dallas, St. Louis, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Denver, Seattle and Cincinnati.

Microsoft’s Bing went 4-10, having misses of NY Jets, Green Bay, St. Louis, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Denver, Seattle and Cincinnati. Microsoft Bing was able to pick up on Tampa Bay’s win and successfully pulled a pick, however had a miss of Oakland.

Nate Silver’s Elo went 4-10, having misses of NY Jets, Green Bay, Dallas, St. Louis, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Denver, Seattle and Cincinnati.

Moving on to Week 11 picks, there is a lot of variability, but the models are specifically split for the Jacksonville vs Tennessee game.

Week 11 Picks

Amos has two spotlight picks, currently favoring Tennessee over Jacksonville (50.4%) and and Dallas over Miami (55%).

ESPN’s FPI is deviating a lot from the rest of the models, currently favoring Tennessee over Jacksonville (57%), Indianapolis over Atlanta (59%), Green Bay over Minnesota (61%) and San Diego over Kansas City (54%). FPI is currently the only model to believing in Aaron Rodgers to get back on track.

Microsoft’s Bing is currently favoring Jacksonville over Tennessee (61%) and NY Jets over Houston (57%).

Nate Silver’s Elo only has one that is specifically noteworthy, which is Jacksonville over Tennessee (62%).

Week 11 Overall Graph

Finally, from the performances of each of the teams, Amos has simulated the rest of the season. The biggest gainer this week was Tampa Bay, not only picking up its win this week, but also adding an additional 2 games throughout the rest of the season. The biggest losers this week are Baltimore, Dallas, New Orleans, Seattle and St. Louis all of which lost two games on their record.

Week 11 Remainder

Week 1: 11-5

Week 2: 9-7

Week 3: 11-5

Week 4: 9-6

Week 5: 10-4

Week 6: 10-4

Week 7: 9-5

Week 8: 10-4

Week 9: 7-6

HALFTIME REPORT & Week 10: 5-9

Week 12: 9-7

Week 13: 11-5

Week 14: 9-7

Week 15: 14-2

Week 16: 7-9

Week 17: 9-7

Wildcard: 3-1

Divisional: 2-2

Conference: Predictions


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NFL 2015 Week 10 Predictions

The 2015 NFL season now has 9 weeks under its belt and it’s time to see how Amos has done this season against a broader view of prediction models, as well as how Amos has performed compared to the previous season’s Bischoff model.

For those just joining, Amos is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each NFL game. Amos currently predicts games straight-up. Additionally, Amos then predicts the remainder of the season to compute the ending record of each team.

Amos also has peers within the NFL prediction field. While there are a number of sources for game predictions, I have identified Microsoft’s Bing Prediction (Cortana), ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and Nate Silver’s Elo as benchmarks for comparison to Amos.

First, a look at how the Amos model compares with last year’s model.

Amos vs Bischoff

The Bischoff model contained much more volatility up to this week last year. Specifically, having two breakout performances within Week 5 (93%) and 6 (87%), but also deepening to a 44% performance in Week 2. In comparison, Amos has performed much more consistently, not having a performance under 50%. Amos still has ground to cover to prove superiority over the Bischoff model.

Let’s look at how Amos’ performance over the season has matched up with its selected peers.

Overall Season Week 10

Amos hasn’t had any standout weeks within its peer model group, but that’s also due to Amos’ peers being high performers. Amos can’t boast a week where it has been the top performer, yet its consistency is what has allowed it to remain a top contender. Bing has struggled to having any form of consistency, with an explosive Week 8, reaching 93%, Bing has also stooped to a 38% Week 2. Elo has been a dominant predictive model for the majority of the season,  boasting two consecutive 86% performances over Week 5 and Week 6, and is currently in the lead. Finally, FPI has performed consistently as well, but has not had any extraordinary weeks yet.

How about a broader scope?

Week 10 ALL Standings

Amos has proven to be a top contender within the prediction arena, however not strong enough to gain a top 3 stop. Currently sitting in 7th place. The top performing at mid-season is Nate Silver’ Elo.

Finally, probably the most frequent question I get regarding Amos: how does Amos perform if you take it to Vegas? I’ve been pulling moneyline odds throughout the season as Amos’ algorithm finishes computing the probable winners each week. I’ve staged a scenario of a starting account with $1,000 and each of Amos’ predictions are placed with a $100 bet on the moneyline.

Model Betting week 10

Amos has done very well with its picks. What’s important in betting is not only getting as many as you can correct, but also predicting key upsets to cash in on the odds. With three weeks of having losses, this account would be up to $1,667.03 on the season.

There’s still a whole next half to the season, and it’ll be exciting to see how things develop moving forward. I’ll continue to compile these data points and publish them at the end of the season.

Now for the familiar stats and Week 10 picks.

Week 10 Standings

Amos, not having a good week, went 7-6, having misses of Green Bay, New Orleans, Atlanta, Denver, Dallas and San Diego.

ESPN’s FPI went 9-4, having misses of Green Bay, New Orleans, Dallas and San Diego.

Microsoft’s Bing went 9-4, only having misses of New Orleans, Atlanta, Denver and San Diego.

Nate Silver’s Elo went 8-5, having misses of New Orleans, Atlanta, Denver, Dallas and San Diego.

Moving onto Week 10 picks, only three games having differentiating picks – two of which are Bing’s.

Week 10 Picks

Amos has the same picks as everyone, besides Washington vs New Orleans, where Amos is favoring Washington (61%).

Microsoft’s Bing has two picks differing from the pack, which are Tampa Bay over Dallas (51%) and Oakland over Minnesota (55%). Both being interpreted as very close games.

Nate Silver’s Elo and ESPN’s FPI have no differentiating picks this week.

Week 10 Overall Graph

Finally, from the performances of each of the teams, Amos has simulated the rest of the season. The biggest gainer this week was Baltimore, who was able to pick up 2 more wins over the season as its remaining opponents have been devalued. The biggest losers this week are NY Jets, Denver, Green Bay and Tampa Bay, all of which picked up two more loses throughout the remaining season.

However, this week something very interesting happened. Denver’s devaluation has now left New England as going the remainder of the season without being beat. Up to this point, Amos only gave Denver the ability to beat New England. With Denver’s performance at Indianapolis, Amos currently does not see Denver winning against New England November 29th, leaving New England with a perfect season.

See the results below and each team’s change from the last week. Next week.

Week 10 Remainder

Week 1: 11-5

Week 2: 9-7

Week 3: 11-5

Week 4: 9-6

Week 5: 10-4

Week 6: 10-4

Week 7: 9-5

Week 8: 10-4

Week 9: 7-6

Week 11: 10-4

Week 12: 9-7

Week 13: 11-5

Week 14: 9-7

Week 15: 14-2

Week 16: 7-9

Week 17: 9-7

Wildcard: 3-1

Divisional: 2-2

Conference: Predictions


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NFL 2015 Week 9 Predictions

Holy Bing! Amos drops to third place after explosive performance by Bing.

For those just joining, Amos is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each NFL game. Amos currently predicts games straight-up. Additionally, Amos then predicts the remainder of the season to compute the ending record of each team.

Amos also has peers within the NFL prediction field. While there are a number of sources for game predictions, I have identified Microsoft’s Bing Prediction (Cortana), ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and Nate Silver’s Elo as benchmarks for comparison to Amos.

Week 9 Standings

Amos went 10-4, having misses of Atlanta, Pittsburgh, NY Jets and Dallas.

ESPN’s FPI went 8-6, having misses of Detroit, Atlanta, Chicago, Pittsburgh, NY Jets and Indianapolis.

Microsoft’s Bing went 13-1, only having a miss of Atlanta.

Nate Silver’s Elo went 11-3, having misses of Atlanta, Pittsburgh and NY Jets.

Moving onto Week 9 picks, only four games have models deviating from the rest. The big game this week is Green Bay at Carolina.

Week 9 Picks

Amos doesn’t have any surprising picks other than the big toss-up for the week. Green Bay at Carolina, where Amos is favoring Green Bay (58%).

ESPN’s FPI has come out with some interesting picks currently favoring San Francisco over Atlanta (54%) and Indianapolis over Denver (58%). Additionally, FPI is siding with Amos and favoring Green Bay over Carolina (58%).

Microsoft’s Bing, coming off a nearly perfect week, is currently favoring Carolina over Green Bay (57%). Additionally, Bing is deviating from the rest of the models by taking Philadelphia over Dallas (58%).

Nate Silver’s Elo is favoring the same teams as Amos, save one: Elo is currently favoring Carolina over Green Bay (55%).

Week 9 Overall Graph

Finally, from the performances of each of the teams, Amos has simulated the rest of the season. The big gainer this week is Chicago, who was able to pick up 2 more wins for the seasons after their win over Atlanta. The biggest losers this week are Detroit and San Francisco, who picked up two more loses throughout the remaining season.

See the results below and each team’s change from the last week. Next week.

Week 9 Remainder

Next week I will be writing a halftime report, publishing a variety of additional stats and metrics I have been keeping track of for Amos.

Week 1: 11-5

Week 2: 9-7

Week 3: 11-5

Week 4: 9-6

Week 5: 10-4

Week 6: 10-4

Week 7: 9-5

Week 8: 10-4

HALFTIME REPORT & Week 10: 5-9

Week 11: 10-4

Week 12: 9-7

Week 13: 11-5

Week 14: 9-7

Week 15: 14-2

Week 16: 7-9

Week 17: 9-7

Wildcard: 3-1

Divisional: 2-2

Conference: Predictions


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NFL 2015 Week 8 Predictions

Amos and Nate Silver’s Elo tie for the week, and Bing regains some lost ground.

For those just joining, Amos is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each NFL game. Amos currently predicts games straight-up. Additionally, Amos then predicts the remainder of the season to compute the ending record of each team.

Amos also has peers within the NFL prediction field. While there are a number of sources for game predictions, I have identified Microsoft’s Bing Prediction (Cortana), ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and Nate Silver’s Elo as benchmarks for comparison to Amos.

Week 8 Standings

Amos went 9-5, having misses of Buffalo, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Diego and Dallas.

ESPN’s FPI went 8-6, having misses of Buffalo, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Detroit, San Diego and Dallas.

Microsoft’s Bing went 10-4, which is only its second time finishing a week above the other models, having misses of Buffalo, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and San Diego.

Nate Silver’s Elo went 9-5, having misses of Buffalo, Indianapolis, New Orleans and San Diego. Unfortunately, Elo did not have a pick for the Minnesota and Detroit game which will be counted against it.

Moving onto Week 8 picks, ESPN’s FPI is calling for some upsets. However, the main toss up is Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh this week.

Week 8 Picks

Amos’ picks this week are no surprises except Amos continues to have faith and is favoring Dallas by less than 1% (actually 50.008%).

ESPN FPI is predicting some upsets this week with favoring Detroit over Kansas City (53%), Chicago over Minnesota (55%), and Indianapolis over Carolina (56%). FPI is also on the fence over Dallas vs Seattle, but is leaning slightly to Seattle.

Microsoft’s Bing has two deviations from the other models which are Cincinnati over Pittsburgh (52%) and Oakland over NY Jets (53%).

Nate Silver’s Elo has the same predictions as Amos and Bing, however Elo, much like Amos, has predicted right at 50% for the Cincinnati at Pittsburgh game. Elo has taken the Pittsburgh pick.

Week 8 Overall Graph

Finally, from the performances of each of the teams, Amos has simulated the rest of the season. The big gainer this week is Kansas City, who was able to pick up 2 more wins for the season. The biggest losers this week are Dallas and San Diego, which should not be surprising after the loses this week.

Week 8 Remainder

See the results below and each team’s change from the last week.

Week 1: 11-5

Week 2: 9-7

Week 3: 11-5

Week 4: 9-6

Week 5: 10-4

Week 6: 10-4

Week 7: 9-5

Week 9: 7-6

HALFTIME REPORT & Week 10: 5-9

Week 11: 10-4

Week 12: 9-7

Week 13: 11-5

Week 14: 9-7

Week 15: 14-2

Week 16: 7-9

Week 17: 9-7

Wildcard: 3-1

Divisional: 2-2

Conference: Predictions

Update: A reader pointed out that Nate Silver’s Elo does indeed have a pick for the Cincinnati at Pittsburgh game. This has been added and updated in all charts and graphs.

Update: Bing changed its pick from NY Jets to Oakland. This has been added and updated in all charts and graphs.


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NFL 2015 Week 7 Predictions

Amos overtakes FPI for second place and Elo extends its lead 1 more game.

For those just joining, Amos is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each NFL game. Amos currently predicts games straight-up. Additionally, Amos then predicts the remainder of the season to compute the ending record of each team.

Amos also has peers within the NFL prediction field. While there are a number of sources for game predictions, I have identified Microsoft’s Bing Prediction (Cortana), ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and Nate Silver’s Elo as benchmarks for comparison to Amos.

Week 7 Standings

Amos went 10-4, having misses of Atlanta, Buffalo, Baltimore and Seattle. A great week for Amos.

ESPN’s FPI went 9-5, finding a great pick of New Orleans over Atlanta, but having misses of Washington, Buffalo, Seattle, Baltimore and Indianapolis.

Microsoft’s Bing went 9-5, having misses of Atlanta, Seattle and Baltimore, but also having two more notable misses of Arizona and Tennessee, which were deviations from the other models.

Nate Silver’s Elo, having another stellar week, went 12-2. Elo only missed picks of Atlanta and Seattle, pulling off two great picks of Cincinnati and San Francisco against the other models.

Moving into Week 7 picks, ESPN’s FPI has the bold predictions for the week while the other three models are at a consensus other than Dallas at NY Giants.

Week 7 Picks

Amos, Microsoft’s Bing and Nate Silver’s Elo all have the same picks, except Elo currently does not have a pick for the Minnesota at Detroit game and is evenly split exactly 50-50.

The only deviation occurring between the three models is the Dallas at NY Giants game where Amos and ESPN’s FPI are favoring Dallas meanwhile Microsoft’s Bing and Nate Silver’s Elo are favoring NY Giants. This poses an interesting interpretation as Bing has not been performing well, however Elo has been performing well. This could allow Bing to regain some ground or allow Amos and FPI to get a step closer to Elo.

ESPN FPI has three deviations for Week 7. FPI is favoring Tennessee over Atlanta (60%), losing some faith in Atlanta after last week’s loss at New Orleans. Additionally, FPI is favoring Detroit over Minnesota (59%) and Kansas City over Pittsburgh (56%).

Week 7 Overall Graph

Finally, from the performances of each of the teams, Amos has simulated the rest of the season. The big gainer this week is Dallas, as Amos has calculated an additional three wins throughout the season as Amos devalues select opponents of theirs, specifically over NY Giants this week which Amos was favoring NY Giants until last night’s game. The biggest losers this week are NY Giants, Chicago and Detroit as Amos penalized all three teams two games.

See the results below and each team’s change from the last week.

Week 7 Remainder

Week 1: 11-5

Week 2: 9-7

Week 3: 11-5

Week 4: 9-6

Week 5: 10-4

Week 6: 10-4

Week 8: 10-4

Week 9: 7-6

HALFTIME REPORT & Week 10: 5-9

Week 11: 10-4

Week 12: 9-7

Week 13: 11-5

Week 14: 9-7

Week 15: 14-2

Week 16: 7-9

Week 17: 9-7

Wildcard: 3-1

Divisional: 2-2

Conference: Predictions


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NFL 2015 Week 6 Predictions

Amos comes off a great week, but so do the rest of the models.

For those just joining, Amos is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each NFL game. Amos currently predicts games straight-up. Additionally, Amos then predicts the remainder of the season to compute the ending record of each team.

Amos also has peers within the NFL prediction field. While there are a number of sources for game predictions, I have identified Microsoft’s Bing Prediction (Cortana), ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and Nate Silver’s Elo as benchmarks for comparison to Amos.

Week 6 Standings

Amos went 10-4, having misses of Kansas City, Jacksonville, Baltimore, and Dallas. Amos went out on a limb with the Dallas and Jacksonville picks against the other models. Amos was able to pull off an exceptional pick of Pittsburgh over San Diego.

ESPN’s FPI went 9-5, having misses of Kansas City, Baltimore, Seattle, Detroit, and San Diego.

Microsoft’s Bing went 10-4, having misses of Kansas City, Baltimore, Tennessee and San Diego. A better week for Bing’s terrible recent performance, but still coming up short in the overall standings.

Nate Silver’s Elo went 12-2, an absolutely stellar week, having losses of Kansas City and Baltimore. Elo was also able to predict Pittsburgh over San Diego.

Moving into week 6 picks, the models have decided to throw some daring predictions.

Week 6 Picks

Amos hasn’t pulled out any surprising picks this week besides Pittsburgh over Arizona (51.6%). While a bold prediction, all the other models also have Pittsburgh winning.

ESPN’s FPI has decided to make a statement, predicting wins of New Orleans over Atlanta (61%), Indianapolis over New England (58%),  and Washington over NY Jets (67%).

Microsoft’s Bing is joining FPI in predicting New Orleans over Atlanta (53%) and Indianapolis over New England (58%).  making two bold predictions by favoring Tennessee over Miami (58%) and Cincinnati over Buffalo (52%).

Nate Silver’s Elo also makes two bold predictions. Elo is currently favoring Cincinnati over Seattle (53%) and, confidently, San Francisco over Baltimore (66%) (52%).

Week 6 Overall Graph

Finally, from the performances of each of the teams, Amos has simulated the rest of the season. The big gainer this week, again, is Atlanta, as Amos has calculated an additional four games throughout the season as they pulled off a win over Washington. The biggest losers this week are Houston and Dallas, Amos penalizing both teams three games.

See the results below and each team’s change from the last week.

Week 6 Remainder

Week 1: 11-5

Week 2: 9-7

Week 3: 11-5

Week 4: 9-6

Week 5: 10-4

Week 7: 9-5

Week 8: 10-4

Week 9: 7-6

HALFTIME REPORT & Week 10: 5-9

Week 11: 10-4

Week 12: 9-7

Week 13: 11-5

Week 14: 9-7

Week 15: 14-2

Week 16: 7-9

Week 17: 9-7

Wildcard: 3-1

Divisional: Predictions

Update: A reader pointed out that Nate Silver’s Elo confidence plot was inverted for the NY Jets vs New Orleans game. This has been corrected and is now accurate in all charts and graphs.

Update: Bing changed New Orleans to Atlanta, Indianapolis to New England, Buffalo to Cincinnati, and issued a pick of Tennessee over Miami. This is now accurate in all charts and graphs.

Update: A reader pointed out Elo’s probability of San Francisco vs Baltimore changed from 66% to 52%. This is now accurate in all charts and graphs.

Update: Bing changed its pick to Arizona (55%) versus Pittsburgh and increased its confidence in Philadelphia to 56%. This is now accurate in all charts and graphs.


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NFL 2015 Week 5 Predictions

Amos had an average week, beating out Microsoft’s Bing (Cortana), but falling one behind Nate Silver’s Elo and ESPN’s FPI.

For those just joining, Amos is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each NFL game. Amos currently predicts games straight-up. Additionally, Amos then predicts the remainder of the season to compute the ending record of each team.

Amos also has peers within the NFL prediction field. While there are a number of sources for game predictions, I have identified Microsoft’s Bing Prediction (Cortana), ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and Nate Silver’s Elo as benchmarks for comparison to Amos.

Week 5 Standings

Amos went 9-6 (60%). Amos went out on a limb this week and was able to predict wins at Washington and Chicago this week. However, Amos missed its pick of Houston over Atlanta with additional misses on Pittsburgh, Miami, Buffalo, Arizona and Dallas.

ESPN’s FPI went 10-5 (67%). Performing one game over Amos, FPI was able to pick up New Orleans’ advantage of playing at home and Atlanta’s heat wave, however not picking Washington win.

Microsoft’s Bing went 8-7 (53%). Bing nearly missed half of its picks, most notably Philadelphia and Oakland, but picked up Atlanta which Amos did not.

Nate Silver’s Elo went 10-5 (67%). Nate Silver was able to also pull of one game over Amos, which was driven by picks of NY Jets and Atlanta, but not picking Washington’s win.

Moving on to Week 5 picks, the models look to differentiate themselves in some key areas. A handful of deviations are present.

Week 5 Picks

Amos has a very bold prediction for Week 5, picking Dallas over New England (52%) as New England rolls off its bye week. Slightly less bold, Amos is also favoring Jacksonville as they travel to take on Tampa Bay (50.1%) while the rest of the models are favoring Tampa Bay. Additionally, the models are evenly split on the San Diego vs Pittsburgh game; Amos is favoring Pittsburgh (63%).

ESPN’s FPI continues to have faith in Seattle as they travel to take on Cincinnati (55%). Additionally, FPI is favoring Detroit over Arizona (59%) and San Diego over Pittsburgh (50.1%). Great chances for FPI to pull away further if the model is correct.

Microsoft’s Bing only has one deviation from the rest of the models besides favoring San Diego (52%) in the game against Pittsburgh. Bing is currently favoring Tennessee at home over Buffalo (51%).

Elo remains relatively mellow entering into Week 5, but joins the ambiguity of the San Diego vs Pittsburgh game by favoring Pittsburgh (50.1%).

Week 5 Overall Graph

Finally, from the performances of each of the teams, Amos has simulated the rest of the season. The big gainer this week is Atlanta, as Amos has calculated an additional 3 games throughout the season as a results of their performance against Houston this past week. The biggest loser is Tampa Bay as they struggled with turnovers against Carolina.

See the results below and each team’s change from the last week.

Week 5 Remainder

Week 1: 11-5

Week 2: 9-7

Week 3: 11-5

Week 4: 9-6

Week 6: 10-4

Week 7: 9-5

Week 8: 10-4

Week 9: 7-6

HALFTIME REPORT & Week 10: 5-9

Week 11: 10-4

Week 12: 9-7

Week 13: 11-5

Week 14: 9-7

Week 15: 14-2

Week 16: 7-9

Week 17: 9-7

Wildcard: 3-1

Divisional: 2-2

Conference: Predictions


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NFL 2015 Week 4 Predictions

Amos retains tie for the lead, and ESPN’s FPI flexes an additional win for the week to make it a three-way tie.

For those just joining, Amos is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each NFL game. Amos currently predicts games straight-up. Additionally, Amos then predicts the remainder of the season to compute the ending record of each team.

Amos also has peers within the NFL prediction field. While there are a number of sources for game predictions, I have identified Microsoft’s Bing PredictionESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and Nate Silver’s Elo as benchmarks for comparison to Amos.

Week 4 Standings

Amos went 11-5 (69%). A notable pick by Amos this week was Philadelphia over the NY Jets, but missed picks on Baltimore, Miami, Dallas, Cleveland and Detroit.

ESPN’s FPI went 12-4 (75%). A one game week over Amos with the same Philadelphia pick over the NY Jets with an additional Denver pick. Other than that, the same picks as Amos.

Microsoft’s Bing went 11-5 (69%). Bing had a notable pick of Atlanta, where all other models had Dallas, but lost some ground with a NY Jet’s pick. Bing also missed picks on Cleveland, Miami, Baltimore and St. Louis.

Nate Silver’s Elo went 11-5 (69%). Elo had the same picks as Bing, without the Atlanta pick, favoring Dallas instead and gaining a pick with Pittsburgh.

Moving on to Week 4 picks, the models look to differentiate themselves. A handful of deviations are present.

Week 4 Picks

Amos has calculated some interesting picks this week. Amos is currently favoring Washington over Philadelphia (51%) and Houston over Atlanta (51%). Close games; the rest of the models favoring the opponent.

ESPN’s FPI is favoring New Orleans over Dallas (50.4%). Once again, a close game while the rest of the models have picked Dallas.

Microsoft’s Bing is going out on a limb and favoring Oakland over Chicago (63%) while the rest of the models have picked Chicago.

Elo is favoring the NY Jets over Miami (54%) with the rest of the models picking Miami.

Week 4 Overall Graph

Finally, from the performances of each of the teams, Amos has simulated the rest of the season. Big gainers this week are New England and Buffalo, collecting 4 additional wins throughout the remainder of the season. The  biggest loser this week is San Francisco, losing an additional 4 games.

See the results below and each team’s change from the last week.

Week 4 Remainder

Week 1: 11-5

Week 2: 9-7

Week 3: 11-5

Week 5: 10-4

Week 6: 10-4

Week 7: 9-5

Week 8: 10-4

Week 9: 7-6

HALFTIME REPORT & Week 10: 5-9

Week 11: 10-4

Week 12: 9-7

Week 13: 11-5

Week 14: 9-7

Week 15: 14-2

Week 16: 7-9

Week 17: 9-7

Wildcard: 3-1

Divisional: 2-2

Conference: Predictions


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NFL 2015 Week 3 Predictions

Week 2 is in the books and Amos had a great week. Sort of.

For those just joining, Amos is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each NFL game. Amos currently predicts games straight-up. Additionally, Amos then predicts the remainder of the season to compute the ending record of each team.

Amos also has peers within the NFL prediction field. While there are a number of sources for game predictions, I have identified Microsoft’s Bing PredictionESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and Nate Silver’s Elo as benchmarks for comparison to Amos.

Week 3 Standings

Bing has now fallen behind from Week 1 and Amos and Elo are tied for first, but all performances are low due to a quite the occasion this past week.

Wins by Oakland, Jacksonville and Tampa Bay hurt all models. Surprisingly, all three models predicted Cleveland’s win over Tennessee, but only Amos was able to predict Washington’s win over St. Louis, coupled with a Denver over Kansas City pick, enabling Amos to pass Bing and tie with Elo.

Amos went 9-7 (56%) this week, moving up in the standings with an incredible differential prediction of Washington over St. Louis. Slightly less impressive, Amos also picked Denver over Kansas City. A big week for Amos to get back up with its peers while still a low accuracy week.

FPI went 9-7 (56%) as well, also predicting Denver over Kansas City and New England over Buffalo.

Bing had a terrible week, going 6-10 (38%). Bing’s performance poor performance was driven by misses all over the board with the losses of Chicago, Kansas City, Buffalo, and Indianapolis.

Elo also had relatively rough week, only getting to 8-8 (50%). The performance was driven by its misses of Kansas City and Indianapolis games.

Moving on into Week 3 picks, it looks to be a fairly tame week in the prediction arena. There is a large amount of consensus with only 4 games with differences.

Week 3 Picks

Deviations provide an opportunity for models to pull away from the others, with the risk of falling behind. This week we will see 4. Amos is favoring Detroit over Denver. A bold move as all other models are in agreement over Denver. Similarly, Elo is favoring NY Jets over Philadelphia while all other models a favoring Philadelphia. Bing is also squaring off against the models favoring St. Louis over Pittsburgh and Atlanta over Dallas. Finally, all four models are split between Philadelphia @ NY Jets.

Below outlines the picks by model, but also illustrates confidence differences between models.

Week 3 Overall Graph

Finally, from the performances of each of the teams, Amos has simulated the rest of the season. See the results below and each team’s change from the last week.

Week 3 Remainder

Week 1: 11-5

Week 2: 9-7

Week 4: 9-6

Week 5: 10-4

Week 6: 10-4

Week 7: 9-5

Week 8: 10-4

Week 9: 7-6

HALFTIME REPORT & Week 10: 5-9

Week 11: 10-4

Week 12: 9-7

Week 13: 11-5

Week 14: 9-7

Week 15: 14-2

Week 16: 7-9

Week 17: 9-7

Wildcard: 3-1

Divisional: 2-2

Conference: Predictions


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NFL 2015 Week 2 Predictions

Week 1 is in the books and now Amos has some new 2015 data.

For those just joining, Amos is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each NFL game. Amos currently predicts games straight-up. Additionally, Amos then predicts the remainder of the season to compute the ending record of each team.

Amos also has peers within the NFL prediction field. While there are a number of sources for game predictions, I have identified Microsoft’s Bing Prediction and ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) as benchmarks for comparison to Amos. I will also be including Nate Silver’s Elo this week.

Amos went 11-5, performing well for the first week. Amos hit all of its picks over 70% besides Philadelphia’s loss. Bing went 13-3 outperforming the rest of the models by predicting wins at Atlanta and St. Louis. Elo went 12-4, falling into 2nd place. and ESPN’s FPI went 10-6, falling into 4th and par with home wins.
Week 2 Standings

Moving on into week two picks, there is a lot of consensus among the models. Check out all of the predictions below.

Week 2 Picks

There appear to only be four key games this week for the models.

First, Amos is heavily favoring Washington over St. Louis (60.1%) while all the other models are favoring St. Louis.

Second, Bing is favoring Chicago over Arizona (51.5%) while the rest of the models favor Arizona.

Third, the Denver vs Kansas City match up is split by the models, Amos and ESPN’s FPI favoring Denver while Bing and Elo favor Kansas City.

Fourth, the Buffalo vs New England match up is also split by the models, Amos and Bing favoring Buffalo while ESPN’s FPI and Elo are favoring New England.

Week 2 Overall Graph

Finally, from the performances of each of the teams, Amos has simulated the rest of the season. See the results below and each team’s change from the last week.

Week 2 Remainder

Week 1: 11-5

Week 3: 11-5

Week 4: 9-6

Week 5: 10-4

Week 6: 10-4

Week 7: 9-5

Week 8: 10-4

Week 9: 7-6

HALFTIME REPORT & Week 10: 5-9

Week 11: 10-4

Week 12: 9-7

Week 13: 11-5

Week 14: 9-7

Week 15: 14-2

Week 16: 7-9

Week 17: 9-7

Wildcard: 3-1

Divisional: 2-2

Conference: Predictions


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