NFL Week 16 Picks

NFL Week 16 Picks

Week 15 resulted in the Bischoff model’s 4th highest pick percentage of 81.3%, correctly picking 13 out of 16 of last weeks games.

The model’s other prediction percentages  still beating this week’s are Week 5 (93.3%), Week 6 (86.7%) and Week 12 (86.7%).

The model moves to 155-68-1 on the season (69.4%).Week 15 Outcomes

Microsoft Cortana saw the same success as the Bischoff model with picking 13 out of 16 games, however the result was not from identical predictions.

Cortana had deviated from Bischoff’s prediction of Arizona over St. Louis, which caused hurt Cortana. Nonetheless, Microsoft’s model deviated from the Bischoff model once more with a prediction of NY Jets over Tennessee, which proved to be a last minute win from New York.

Microsoft Cortana moves to 148-75-1 (65.9%)

Nate Silver’s Elo, correctly picking 12 out of 16 games, lagged behind the Bischoff model by 1 with confidence in Chicago that did not hold true. The loss also resulted in Jay Cutler getting pulled from starting this Sunday.

Nate Silver’s Elo moves to 156-67-1 (69.7%).

Moving into Week 16, the Bischoff model stands out against Nate Silver’s Elo and Microsoft’s Cortana by 3 games. Bischoff’s prediction in bold, these key games are:

Tennessee at Jacksonville (Tennessee)

Indianapolis at Dallas (Indianapolis)

Cleveland at Carolina (Cleveland)

Additionally, Nate Silver strays from Bischoff and Cortana with a pick of San Francisco over San Diego. Here is the full breakdown.

Week 16 Picks


NFL Week 15 Picks

Week 14 outcomes have provided a flip in the Bischoff and Nate Silver’s Elo model. Bischoff model only hitting a 62.5% while Nate Silver’s Elo boasts a 81.3%. Microsoft’s Cortana falls even farther behind with a 56.3%. This allowed Nate Silver’s Elo to regain the top spot by one game.

Here are those outcomes:

Week 14 Outcomes

Moving on into Week 15, the models disagree on Arizona at St. Louis, NY Jets at Tennessee, and New Orleans at Chicago. Nate Silver’s Elo has the potential to pull farther ahead with its pick of Chicago. Microsoft also differs from the Bischoff model and Nate Silver’s Elo twice, which gambles a catch up to the two models or falling farther behind.

Here are all of the predictions:

Week 15 Predictions


NFL Week 14 Picks

While the model’s this week did not come out on an impressive note, this week does hold some important implications.

This week the Bischoff model (132-59-1) has surpassed Nate Silver’s Elo model (131-60-1) on season picks, which was realized on Thanksgiving through the picks of Philadelphia and Seattle.  Meanwhile Microsoft’s Cortana (126-65-1) is still struggling to keep up, but did venture from the other two models and had a successful pick of Green Bay against New England.

Here are the outcomes of week 13:

Week 13 Outcomes

 

Heading into Week 14, Nate Silver’s Elo strays away from Microsoft’s Cortana as well as Bischoff’s model. Disagreeing with Tennessee and Philadelphia, both home. While Microsoft’s Cortana is favoring Kansas City over Arizona on Arizona’s turf.

Besides the difference above, the models all agree on picks, which, as we learned this past week, does not mean they’re correct.

Here is the full breakdown:

Week 14 Predictions

 

 


This Definitely Won’t Happen To Mark Sanchez Today

The best day of the year.

“Chase, isn’t it still November?” – you, most likely.

No, Christmas Day isn’t here, but Thanksgiving Day is and that means two things: Endless amounts of awesome food and football nearly non-stop. Probably one of my top five days along with St. Patty’s in Bowling Green, Ohio and whenever BGSU is in the MAC title game or a bowl game.

Bears @ Lions

Chicago heads to Detroit where the Lions have become relevant and not just an auto-win for the Packers anymore. Chicago this year has been Jekyll and Hyde. One game Jay Cutler looks like a Super Bowl quarterback and the next looks worse than Andy Dalton in the playoffs. He has also produced the best meme ever with Smokin’ Jay Cutler. Detroit is favored by 7 points which seems way too high, but favorites have been historically good on short rest and on Turkey Day. Since 2003, favorites are 55-41 ATS on 4 days of rest or less. On Thanksgiving Day with at least a five point spread, they are 12-0 ATS. This means we should lean Detroit, right? Maybe not because Jay Cutler is 44-68 ATS for his career, and the quarterback position is the most important on the field. Given Jay Cutler’s inconsistency and my man crush on Calvin Johnson, I will swallow the points and hope for a late pick 6 from Cutler to cover the spread. LIONS -7.

Eagles @ Cowboys

This game is massive for the NFC East title race that has come down to these two teams. They meet again in Philly on the 14th of December which might just decide who wins the division. Chip Kelly is revolutionizing coaching and he gets the right quarterback I don’t know if he will ever lose again. However, I do believe in Sanchez more than most people do. I don’t really understand this Cowboys team. That offensive line is incredible, but they are somehow 3-3 at home. It really seems like this could be a game where one team dominates and surprises everyone, then when they play again the complete opposite happens. I like Mark Sanchez more than I like primetime Tony Romo, and for that reason I will take my boy Chip Kelly. EAGLES +3.5.

Seahawks @ 49ers

Man oh man the games just get better and better as the day goes on. These two teams do not like each other one bit and a lot is on the line. The loser will have a very tough time making the playoffs with Detroit and the NFC East loser of the previous game likely at 8-4 after tomorrow. Ideally for both of these teams Chicago wins earlier in the day, but if the Lions win, this game may be where you can look should either team miss the playoffs. So yeah, this is a big game. I think the 49ers make a statement, win this game, and go on to do some damage in the playoffs. 49ERS -1.

Regardless of tomorrow’s results, I hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving with your family. If you are unable to spend it with them, I hope you make the best of it. Christmas Day used to be my favorite day of the year, but I feel that’s more for kids. I mean come on, turkey is really good.

Thanks for letting me write, Trevor; hope all is well.


NFL Week 12 Picks

With strong leaders emerging through the previous weeks such as Arizona, the outlook for the 2014 playoffs are still open as ever. Well, besides Oakland, who has yet to find a win this year. But Oakland isn’t the only one that may be hurting after this week…

The Bischoff NFL model is coming off of a very rough week with only 8 out of 14 games predicted correctly, which brings it’s total record 108-52-1. Luckily for the Bischoff model, its peers also performed poorly as Nate Silver’s ELO model as well as Microsoft’s Cortana both had identical percentages.

Week 11 Outcomes

 

While a lot was at play this week, some notable upsets were Denver at St. Louis, Houston at Cleveland, and Cincinnati and New Orleans. All models had Denver, Cleveland, and New Orleans. This overturned many impressions on the strength of the Broncos heading into the playoffs. Additionally, Cleveland’s claim over the AFC North was short lived after the Houston game, which they have found themselves at the bottom of the division.

Moving on into predictions for Week 12, the Bischoff model seems to stray very much away from both Microsoft’s Cortana and Nate Silver’s Elo in some areas. Key games to watch for the Bischoff model are Baltimore at New Orleans and the redemption of Cleveland at Atlanta.

For those of you just joining, these disparities come from the different ideologies on how the models are built, importance of factors included, as well as what factors are included in the first place. While most of the game predictions are the same, the outcome of Week 12 will prove interest on the two previously mentioned games as well as Microsoft’s prediction of Houston winning at home over Cincinnati.

Here is the full list of NFL week 12 picks for this week:

Week 12 Picks


Week 11 Model Predictions

All three models performed relatively well for week 10. Nate Silver’s Elo and Microsoft’s Cortana both coming in at 69.2% accurate and the Bischoff model hitting 76%.

Moving into week 11 there are some strong differences between the Bischoff model and the other two. Most notably Minnesota at Chicago, Philadelphia at Green Bay, and Atlanta at Carolina. Here are the full predictions.

Week 11 Predictions


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