NFL 2015 Week 12 Predictions
Amos was the top perform last week, and now Amos ties for top performer with Nate Silver’s Elo and ESPN’s FPI.
For those just joining, Amos is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each NFL game. Amos currently predicts games straight-up. Additionally, Amos then predicts the remainder of the season to compute the ending record of each team.
Amos also has peers within the NFL prediction field. While there are a number of sources for game predictions, I have identified Microsoft’s Bing Prediction (Cortana), ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and Nate Silver’s Elo as benchmarks for comparison to Amos.
Amos went 10-4, having misses of Tennessee, Atlanta, Philadelphia and Minnesota.
ESPN’s FPI went 10-4, having misses of Tennessee, Philadelphia, Miami and San Diego.
Microsoft’s Bing went 9-5, having misses of Atlanta, NY Jets, Philadelphia, Minnesota and Miami.
Nate Silver’s Elo went 10-4, having misses of Atlanta, Philadelphia Minnesota and Miami.
Moving on into Week 12 picks, and Thanksgiving weekend, keep a lookout for the Philadelphia at Detroit and Carolina at Dallas games.
Amos’ notable picks include Philadelphia over Detroit (51%), Carolina over Dallas (58%), Tennessee over Oakland (59%), and NY Jets over Miami (62%).
ESPN’s FPI is predicting a slew of upsets this week, favoring Philadelphia over Detroit (50%), Dallas over Carolina (65%), San Diego over Jacksonville, Miami over NY Jets (51%) and Denver over New England (56%).
Microsoft Bing’s notable picks include Detroit over Philadelphia (53%), Carolina over Dallas (52%) and NY Jets over Miami (57%) and Cleveland over Baltimore (55%).
Nate Silver Elo’s notable picks include Detroit over Philadelphia (52%), Carolina over Dallas (65%) and NY Jets over Miami (62%).
Finally, from the performances of each of the teams, Amos has simulated the rest of the season. The biggest gainer this week was Jacksonville, not only picking up its win this week, but also adding an additional game throughout the rest of the season. The biggest losers this week are San Diego, San Francisco and Minnesota, all of which lost two games on their record. As of now, Amos is stilling predicting Green Bay to clinch the NFC North.
Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 10-4
Week 6: 10-4
Week 7: 9-5
Week 8: 10-4
Week 9: 7-6
Week 11: 10-4
Week 13: 11-5
Week 14: 9-7
Week 15: 14-2
Week 16: 7-9
Week 17: 9-7