NFL 2015 Week 15 Predictions

NFL 2015 Week 15 Predictions

FPI comes out on top for the week, the other models tie for second.

For those just joining, Amos is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each NFL game. Amos currently predicts games straight-up. Additionally, Amos then predicts the remainder of the season to compute the ending record of each team.

Amos also has peers within the NFL prediction field. While there are a number of sources for game predictions, I have identified Microsoft’s Bing Prediction (Cortana), ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and Nate Silver’s Elo as benchmarks for comparison to Amos.

Week 15 Standings

Amos went 9-7, having misses of San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Chicago, Denver and Miami.

ESPN’s FPI went 10-6, having misses of Cincinnati, Houston, Indianapolis, Chicago, Denver and Miami.

Microsoft’s Bing went 9-7, having misses of Buffalo, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Chicago and Denver.

Nate Silver’s Elo went 9-7, having misses of San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Chicago, Denver and Miami.

Moving on into Week 15 picks, it looks like a variety of games provide a chance for models to change standings on the season.

Week 15 Picks

Amos has a handful of deviations, currently favoring Houston over Indianapolis (56%) and Detroit over New Orleans (66%).

ESPN’s FPI is looking to extend its lead with more deviations, currently favoring Philadelphia over Arizona (61%), NY Giants over Carolina (56%) and Baltimore over Kansas City (59%).

Microsoft’s Bing also has a handful of deviations, currently favoring Tampa Bay over St. Louis (55%), NY Jets over Dallas (63%), Jacksonville over Atlanta (64%) and Miami over San Diego (52%).

Elo looks to remain mellow this week.

Week 15 Overall Graph

Finally, from the performances of each of the teams, Amos has simulated the rest of the season. The biggest gainers this week was Oakland, adding two additional wins to their season records after their win at Denver. The biggest loser this week is Chicago, resulting in two additional loses for their season record.

Week 15 Remainder

Week 1: 11-5

Week 2: 9-7

Week 3: 11-5

Week 4: 9-6

Week 5: 10-4

Week 6: 10-4

Week 7: 9-5

Week 8: 10-4

Week 9: 7-6

HALFTIME REPORT & Week 10: 5-9

Week 11: 10-4

Week 12: 9-7

Week 13: 11-5

Week 14: 9-7

Week 16: 7-9

Week 17: 9-7

Wildcard: 3-1

Divisional: 2-2

Conference: 0-2

Super Bowl: Predictions


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