NFL 2015 Week 16 Predictions

NFL 2015 Week 16 Predictions

An explosive week for Amos. Amos grabs spot number 2, trailing Elo by 5 games on the season.

For those just joining, Amos is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each NFL game. Amos currently predicts games straight-up. Additionally, Amos then predicts the remainder of the season to compute the ending record of each team.

Amos also has peers within the NFL prediction field. While there are a number of sources for game predictions, I have identified Microsoft’s Bing Prediction (Cortana), ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and Nate Silver’s Elo as benchmarks for comparison to Amos.

Week 16 Standings

Amos went 14-2, only having misses of Dallas and Buffalo.

ESPN’s FPI went 8-8, having misses of Dallas, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, NY Giants, Buffalo, Baltimore, Denver and New Orleans.

Microsoft’s Bing went 10-6, having misses of Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Buffalo, Miami and New Orleans.

Nate Silver’s Elo went 12-4, having misses of Dallas, Indianapolis, Buffalo and New Orleans.

Moving on into Week 16 picks, Bing stays conservative and Amos looks to catch up with Elo.

Week 16 Banner

Amos differentiates itself from the other models with picks of Miami over Indianapolis (61%) and Cincinnati over Denver (51%). Additionally the models are split between Oakland vs San Diego, and Amos is favoring San Diego (58%).

ESPN’s FPI is currently favoring Atlanta over Carolina (54%), Green Bay over Arizona (54%) and Baltimore over Pittsburgh (59%).

Microsoft’s Bing has played it safe this week, only joining the split in the models favoring Oakland over San Diego (64%).

Nate Silver’s Elo has the same predictions as Bing, along with favoring Oakland over San Diego (60%).

Week 16 Overall Graph

Finally, from the performances of each of the teams, Amos has simulated the rest of the season. Amos has only made a few adjustments for the final Week 17.

Week 16 Remainder

Week 1: 11-5

Week 2: 9-7

Week 3: 11-5

Week 4: 9-6

Week 5: 10-4

Week 6: 10-4

Week 7: 9-5

Week 8: 10-4

Week 9: 7-6

HALFTIME REPORT & Week 10: 5-9

Week 11: 10-4

Week 12: 9-7

Week 13: 11-5

Week 14: 9-7

Week 15: 14-2

Week 17: 9-7

Wildcard: 3-1

Divisional: 2-2

Conference: 0-2

Super Bowl: Predictions



December 24, 2015 at 11:04 am

Suspicions abound over ESPN’s FPI. After some very shaky picks in week 15, they have Baltimore over Pittsburgh. What could their computer model possibly include that would spit out that result?


    December 30, 2015 at 12:48 pm

    Baltimore has won 5 out of 6 of their last meetings. That’s weights a lot!!

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