NFL 2015 Week 4 Predictions

NFL 2015 Week 4 Predictions

Amos retains tie for the lead, and ESPN’s FPI flexes an additional win for the week to make it a three-way tie.

For those just joining, Amos is a statistical model created to predict the outcomes of each NFL game. Amos currently predicts games straight-up. Additionally, Amos then predicts the remainder of the season to compute the ending record of each team.

Amos also has peers within the NFL prediction field. While there are a number of sources for game predictions, I have identified Microsoft’s Bing PredictionESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and Nate Silver’s Elo as benchmarks for comparison to Amos.

Week 4 Standings

Amos went 11-5 (69%). A notable pick by Amos this week was Philadelphia over the NY Jets, but missed picks on Baltimore, Miami, Dallas, Cleveland and Detroit.

ESPN’s FPI went 12-4 (75%). A one game week over Amos with the same Philadelphia pick over the NY Jets with an additional Denver pick. Other than that, the same picks as Amos.

Microsoft’s Bing went 11-5 (69%). Bing had a notable pick of Atlanta, where all other models had Dallas, but lost some ground with a NY Jet’s pick. Bing also missed picks on Cleveland, Miami, Baltimore and St. Louis.

Nate Silver’s Elo went 11-5 (69%). Elo had the same picks as Bing, without the Atlanta pick, favoring Dallas instead and gaining a pick with Pittsburgh.

Moving on to Week 4 picks, the models look to differentiate themselves. A handful of deviations are present.

Week 4 Picks

Amos has calculated some interesting picks this week. Amos is currently favoring Washington over Philadelphia (51%) and Houston over Atlanta (51%). Close games; the rest of the models favoring the opponent.

ESPN’s FPI is favoring New Orleans over Dallas (50.4%). Once again, a close game while the rest of the models have picked Dallas.

Microsoft’s Bing is going out on a limb and favoring Oakland over Chicago (63%) while the rest of the models have picked Chicago.

Elo is favoring the NY Jets over Miami (54%) with the rest of the models picking Miami.

Week 4 Overall Graph

Finally, from the performances of each of the teams, Amos has simulated the rest of the season. Big gainers this week are New England and Buffalo, collecting 4 additional wins throughout the remainder of the season. The  biggest loser this week is San Francisco, losing an additional 4 games.

See the results below and each team’s change from the last week.

Week 4 Remainder

Week 1: 11-5

Week 2: 9-7

Week 3: 11-5

Week 5: 10-4

Week 6: 10-4

Week 7: 9-5

Week 8: 10-4

Week 9: 7-6

HALFTIME REPORT & Week 10: 5-9

Week 11: 10-4

Week 12: 9-7

Week 13: 11-5

Week 14: 9-7

Week 15: 14-2

Week 16: 7-9

Week 17: 9-7

Wildcard: 3-1

Divisional: 2-2

Conference: Predictions

1 Comment

Cyril Kopko

December 31, 2015 at 12:20 am

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